EdgeBoard
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We publish the number before the game. Then we show you if we were right.

Win probabilities for every NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL game from an open ratings model, the reasons behind each number, and a dated public record of how every call turned out.

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Free to look. No account needed.

On the board

The board

Every game. One number for each side.

The board lists the games by league and by day: start time in your time zone, a win probability for each team, and which way the model leans.

When a game ends, its card keeps the number that was published and puts the final score next to it. Called it, or missed. Both stay up.

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Live from the tool

The EdgeBoard board: game cards with a win probability for each team, a probability bar and the time each number was published.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

The reasons

Why the number is what it is.

Every probability starts at an even 50% and moves in steps you can read: the gap between the two team ratings, the home edge, and short rest.

Recent form and this season’s meetings are shown for what they are: already inside the ratings, with how much of the number they explain.

Read today’s open example

Live from the tool

The reasons screen for one game: the probability moving from 50% through rating gap, home edge and rest days to the model’s number.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

The record

A probability is a claim about many games.

Take every game where the model gave its favorite about 70%. If the number means anything, the favorite won about 7 in 10 of them.

The calibration chart plots what the model said against what happened, with the range that luck alone allows, next to two baselines: always pick the home team, and a coin flip.

See the record

Live from the tool

The record explorer: accuracy, Brier score and log loss tiles above a calibration chart and a month-by-month table.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

The honesty

Two labels that never mix.

“Published before the game” means the number was stored with a time stamp before the start and never edited. Each row carries a fingerprint chained to the row before it.

“Backtest (computed after the fact)” is the same math run over past seasons, one game at a time. It shows how the method behaves. It is not a track record, and it is never shown as one.

How a prediction gets published

Live from the tool

The track record screen with the section “Published before the game” and its count of decided predictions.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

One open method. No secret sauce.

The model is an Elo rating for every team, with a home edge, a short-rest penalty and a reset between seasons. Four settings per league, tuned on past seasons and checked on one that was held back. All of it is published.

What it sees

  • Every final score it has stored, for four leagues
  • Who was at home, and whether the site was neutral
  • How much rest each team had
  • The margin, with big wins counting for more

What it does not

  • Injuries and trades
  • Starting pitchers and goalies
  • Weather and travel
  • Anything that has not shown up in a score yet

That is a real limit, and the Method page says so in full, next to the tuned settings for each league.

Read the method

Four leagues, real games only

Follow your teams. Keep the receipts.

Following teams is free. Pro opens every team’s rating history, the reasons for every game, the full record explorer with a CSV download, and one email a day about the teams you follow.

A team page in the tool: the team’s rating over every stored season as a line chart.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

A rating history for every team

Every stored season on one chart, the record against what the model expected, and the last ten results.

The My teams screen in the tool: followed teams and the switch for the daily email digest.
The real toolScreenshot taken October 2, 2026, signed in as a demo member

One email a day, only when it matters

Today’s games and yesterday’s results for the teams you follow. Read today’s on screen before you switch it on.

Free to look. Pro for the full record.

Both plans see the same numbers from the same model. Pro adds depth, not better predictions.

Free

$0no card needed

The board and the headline record.

  • Win probabilities for every game
  • NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL
  • Headline track record
  • Follow your teams
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Pro

$15a month

The reasons, the full record and your teams by email.

  • Reasons breakdown for every game
  • Full record explorer and calibration by league
  • CSV download of every prediction
  • Team pages with rating history
  • Daily email digest for your teams

Compare the plans line by line

The board is open.

Tonight’s numbers are already up. No account needed to look.

Open the board See the record