How to read a win probability
A 62% chance is not a prediction that the team will win. It is a claim about a hundred games like this one. Here is how to read the number, and how not to.
Read the articleReading the numbers
Plain-English articles for people who like sports and like to check the math.
Calibration, Brier score and log loss, in plain words
Accuracy is the first thing people ask about a forecaster and the least informative. Three better measures, explained with arithmetic you can do on a napkin.
Read the articleA backtest is not a track record
Both are tables of predictions and results. One was written down before the games and one after. Why that difference matters, and four questions to ask of any “proven” model.
Read the articleThen look at the real thing.
The board shows tonight’s numbers. The record shows how the earlier ones turned out.