Questions, answered
How the numbers are made, what the record means, and what you get for free.
What is EdgeBoard?
A board of win probabilities for NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL games. The numbers come from an open ratings model, each one comes with its reasons, and every prediction published before a game stays on a public record with its result.
Is this betting advice?
No. EdgeBoard publishes model probabilities for information and entertainment. It does not show betting lines, link to sportsbooks or suggest bets, and no outcome is guaranteed. If you choose to bet, set limits. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+.
Where do the numbers come from?
From an Elo ratings model. Every team has a rating that moves after each game: winners take points from losers, and a bigger margin or a stronger opponent moves more. The gap between two ratings, plus a home edge and a small short-rest adjustment, becomes a win probability. The whole method and its settings are on the Method page.
What does “Published before the game” mean?
The prediction was stored with a time stamp before the game started, up to 48 hours ahead, once both teams had finished their previous game. Published rows are only ever added. None is edited or removed, and each carries a fingerprint chained to the row before it, so a changed row would break the chain.
What is a backtest, and why is it labeled separately?
A backtest runs the same math over past seasons, predicting each game only from the games before it. It shows how the method behaves, but nobody saw those numbers before the games were played, and the settings were tuned on some of those seasons. So it is labeled “Backtest (computed after the fact)” everywhere and never added to the published record.
How long is the published record?
On this site the first prediction was published on September 30, 2026. The Record page shows the exact count of published and decided predictions as of today. A short record says very little about a model, and the page says so until there is enough to judge.
Which leagues are covered, and how fresh is the data?
NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL: regular season and playoffs. Schedules and final scores come from the MLB Stats API, the NHL API and ESPN’s scoreboards, and this site refreshes every hour. The footer of the tool says when the scores were last updated and from which source.
What does the model not know?
Injuries, trades, starting pitchers, goalies, weather and travel. It sees past scores, who was at home and how much rest each team had. Early in a season it leans on last year’s ratings, so it is slow to notice a team that changed a lot over the summer.
The model gave my team 70% and they lost. Was it wrong?
One game cannot answer that. A 70% chance loses 3 times in 10. The fair test is many games: of all the times the model said about 70%, did the favorite win about 70% of them? That is what the calibration chart on the Record page shows.
What is free, and what does Pro add?
Free: the board with win probabilities for every game, the headline track record, the ratings tables and following teams, plus an open example of each Pro screen: one game’s reasons a day, one explorer view and one team page per league. Pro ($15/mo): the reasons for every game, the full record explorer with calibration by league, CSV download, every team page with rating history, and the daily email digest.
Can I download the predictions?
Yes, with Pro. The record explorer has a CSV download for the published record and for any backtest view: one row per game with the probability, the result and, for published rows, the time stamp and fingerprint.
What is in the daily digest?
Today’s games and yesterday’s results for the teams you follow, with the model’s numbers and the live record so far. It is sent once a day, only on days your teams have a game or a result. You can read today’s digest on screen before switching the email on.
How can I check that a published prediction was not changed?
Every published row stores its probability, both ratings, the settings used and a time stamp, and is hashed with SHA-256 together with the fingerprint of the row before it. The game screen shows the start of that fingerprint, and the CSV download carries it for every row, so two downloads taken at different times can be compared line by line.
Do you show odds or link to sportsbooks?
No. There are no betting lines, no stakes, no bet suggestions and no sportsbook links anywhere on EdgeBoard, and there will not be.
The board is open.
Tonight’s numbers are already up. No account needed to look.