A scoreboard for a model
EdgeBoard is made by Agent Creative, a small web studio in Connecticut. We build websites and the tools that run inside them.
Why it exists
Most places that publish a win probability never tell you how the last thousand of them turned out. The ones that do often show a backtest, numbers worked out after the games were played, as if it were a track record.
We wanted the opposite: one open method, a number stored before the game with a time stamp, and a record that anyone can check. If the model is poor, the record will show it. That is the point of keeping one.
How it is built
Small, plain and checkable. The parts that matter are tested against each other.
One model, written twice
The math lives in JavaScript, where your browser runs it, and in PHP, where the scheduled job that publishes predictions runs it. A test requires both to give identical numbers on every stored game.
Real games only
Schedules and final scores come from the MLB Stats API, the NHL API and ESPN’s scoreboards. Nothing is simulated and there is no sample data.
Tuned, then checked
The four settings per league were chosen on three past seasons and checked on a fourth that was kept aside. Both scores are published on the Method page, including the league where the check came out barely better than a coin flip.
A WordPress plugin and theme
The tool is a plugin with its own settings panel. This site is the theme around it. Both run on an ordinary WordPress install.
What EdgeBoard will not do
It is a model and its record. It is not a betting product, and it is not going to become one.
- Show betting lines, stakes or anything that looks like a bet slip.
- Link to sportsbooks or take money from them.
- Call anything a pick or a lock, or promise a result.
- Edit or delete a published prediction.
- Present a backtest as if it had been published before the games.
- Pretend to know about injuries, trades or tonight’s lineup.
Credits
Scores and schedules come from the MLB Stats API, the NHL API and ESPN’s scoreboards. Photographs on this site, used under the Unsplash license: Floodlit field in fog by Michal Balog, Floodlight tower at night by Graham Powell-Wood. The stadium on the home page is not a photograph: it is drawn in your browser, and its lights are the real games.
Questions, corrections and privacy requests go through the Contact page.
The board is open.
Tonight’s numbers are already up. No account needed to look.