What is on the board
Six screens, each doing one job. Everything below is a screenshot of the working tool, and every one of them opens without an account.
Free
The board
Today’s and upcoming games for four leagues, each with a win probability for both sides.
- League tabs and a strip of the days that have games.
- Start times in your own time zone. A game without an announced time says so.
- A bar and a plain line: “Model leans Devils 61%”.
- Each card says where its number comes from: published with a time stamp, not published yet, or backtest.
- Finished games keep the number and show the score: called it, or missed.
One open example a day · every game with Pro
The reasons
How the model got from 50% to its number for one game, in sentences built from the real inputs.
- Rating gap, home edge and rest days, each with how many points it moved the probability.
- Recent form (rating change over the last five games) and this season’s meetings, shown as part of the ratings rather than added on top.
- For a published prediction: when it was stored and its ledger fingerprint.
- A link you can copy. It opens for anyone.
Free
The track record
Every prediction published before its game, scored, next to two baselines.
- How many predictions are published, how many are decided, and how many were right.
- Accuracy, Brier score and log loss on exactly the same games as “always pick the home team” and a coin flip.
- By league, with the latest published rows listed.
- If the record is short, the page says how short, and what that means.
- Backtests of past seasons sit in their own section, labeled “computed after the fact”.
One open example · full explorer with Pro
Calibration explorer and CSV
Pick a record, a league and a season, and see how well the probabilities matched what happened.
- A calibration chart with the range luck allows for each group of games.
- A month-by-month table and a game-by-game list.
- Regular season and playoffs, together or apart.
- Download the published record or any backtest view as a CSV file.
Ratings table free · one example team · every team with Pro
Team pages
Every team ranked by its current rating, and a page per team with the rating over every stored season.
- The rating history as a chart, season by season.
- Wins against what the model expected, as favorite and as underdog.
- Next games and the last ten results, with published numbers marked apart from backtest ones.
Following is free · the email is Pro
Your teams, by email
Follow teams to see their next games in one place. Pro adds one email a day.
- Today’s games and yesterday’s results for the teams you follow.
- Sent only on days your teams have a game or a result.
- “See today’s digest” shows the exact message before you ever switch it on.
- One switch turns it off.
On the board right now
Not a mock-up: these cards are worked out in your browser from the same stored games the tool uses. Each one opens its game.
Try every screen.
The board, the headline record and one open example of each Pro screen need no account.